Forecast unit sales for one product in one segment
Take segment demand and growth rate from the Industry Conditions Report, and survey scores, awareness and accessibility from last round's Capstone Courier.
How many units should I actually schedule for production?
Your forecast is not your production order. Existing inventory reduces it, and a deliberate safety buffer protects you from a stockout — which costs far more than carrying a few extra units.
Project segment demand to the end of the simulation
Segment growth rates compound. A segment growing at 14% more than doubles over six rounds, which changes where your capacity should be long before you feel the shortage.
How accurate was last round's forecast?
Forecasting accuracy is a scored Balanced Scorecard category. Logging your error each round is the fastest way to stop repeating it.
How to Forecast Sales in Capsim
Ask any instructor which single decision separates the winning team from the rest and the answer is forecasting. Overestimate and you build inventory nobody buys, which costs you carrying charges this round and forces a discount next round. Underestimate and you stock out, handing the sale to a competitor and losing customer awareness you spent two rounds building.
The four inputs that drive your forecast
- Segment demand and growth rate. The Industry Conditions Report gives you both. Growth compounds, so a fast-growing segment needs capacity planned rounds ahead.
- Your customer survey score. This is the December score from the Capstone Courier. It bundles position, price, age, MTBF and awareness into one number, and it is the best available proxy for how attractive your product is relative to rivals.
- Awareness. Driven by your promotion budget, and it decays each round if you stop spending. A product nobody knows about does not sell regardless of how good it is.
- Accessibility. Driven by your sales budget and shared across products in the same segment. It represents how easily buyers can actually reach your product.
The formula this calculator uses
Expected units = Segment demand next round × (your survey score ÷ sum of all survey scores in the segment) × awareness × accessibility.
The share term is the important part. Your survey score only matters relative to what else is on the shelf: a score of 40 in a segment where rivals average 25 is dominant, and the same 40 in a segment where rivals average 55 is not. That is why the calculator asks for the sum of all scores rather than just yours.
Why the calculator gives you three numbers
A single forecast number invites false confidence. Competitors act after you submit, so the honest output is a range. The conservative case assumes a competitor undercuts you or your survey score slips; the optimistic case assumes a rival stocks out and their demand flows to you. Plan production against the expected case and check you can survive the conservative one.
Turning a Forecast into a Production Decision
Your forecast is not what you enter on the Production page. The order you actually schedule is:
Production = Forecast + Safety Buffer − Inventory Already on Hand
How big should the safety buffer be?
| Situation | Suggested buffer | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Stable segment, accurate history | 5–10% | Carry cost is cheap insurance against a small miss |
| Fast-growing segment | 10–15% | Demand surprises upward more often than down |
| New product launch | 0–5% | Awareness is low in the first round, so demand is usually soft |
| Final round | 0% | Leftover inventory has no future value and still costs you |
Stockouts cost more than carrying cost
A unit you carry into the next round costs you roughly 12% of its build cost. A unit you fail to supply costs you the entire contribution margin on that sale, and hands a customer to a rival who may keep them. Asymmetric risk is why a modest buffer is usually correct, and why the final round is the one exception. If your production order exceeds first shift capacity, the capacity vs second shift calculator works out whether to buy the plant or pay the overtime.