Estimate your closing stock price
Is my dividend helping or wasting money?
Capsim ignores the portion of a dividend that exceeds earnings per share. Pay more than you earn and the excess leaves your bank account without lifting your stock price at all — one of the quietest ways teams lose money in the simulation.
What would a change do to my stock price?
Test the three decisions that move the price: retiring or issuing stock, changing the dividend, and improving profit. Each is shown against your current position.
What Drives the Stock Price in Capsim?
Stock price is the single largest financial metric on the Balanced Scorecard, and it is also the number most teams treat as a mystery. It is not. Capsim's own documentation states that three things move it: book value, earnings per share, and dividend policy.
Book value per share
Total equity divided by shares outstanding. This is the floor under your stock price, and it rises every round you retain earnings. It falls when you issue new shares, because the same equity is now spread across more of them. Teams that repeatedly issue stock to fund plant often wonder why their price stagnates in a profitable year — this is why.
Earnings per share
Net profit divided by shares outstanding, and the most responsive of the three. EPS is what carries a stock price above book value, and it is why the fastest route to a higher share price is almost always a better income statement rather than a financing manoeuvre.
Dividend policy
A dividend signals confidence and lifts the price — but only up to the point where it exceeds earnings per share. Beyond that, Capsim disregards the excess. You pay the cash out and receive nothing for it.
The model this calculator uses
Estimated Price = Book Value per Share + (EPS × EPS multiple) + (Effective Dividend × dividend multiple), where the effective dividend is capped at EPS.
The multiples are shown as editable fields because Capsim does not publish its coefficients and different simulation configurations behave differently. Enter last round's actual price and the calculator will show you how far the default model sits from your own simulation, so you can tune it.
How to Raise Your Stock Price
| Action | Effect on price | Speed |
|---|---|---|
| Improve net profit | Strong — raises EPS directly | One round |
| Retire shares | Raises both book value and EPS per share | One round |
| Pay a dividend up to EPS | Moderate positive | One round |
| Retain earnings | Raises book value steadily | Cumulative |
| Issue new shares | Negative — dilutes book value and EPS | Immediate |
| Pay a dividend above EPS | No benefit; cash simply leaves | — |
The retire-shares trap
Buying back stock lifts book value per share and EPS at the same time, which makes it look like free money. It is not. The cash has to come from somewhere, and teams that retire shares while also funding a plant expansion are the ones who meet Big Al's emergency loan — check the round first in the emergency loan estimator. Retire stock from genuine surplus cash, never from the working balance.
Why a profitable round can still see your price fall
Three usual suspects. You issued shares during the round, so EPS is spread thinner. You paid a dividend far above EPS, so cash left with nothing in return. Or your profit was up in absolute terms but down per share because the share count grew faster. Always check EPS rather than net profit when explaining a price move.